Inversion Thinking: The Charlie Munger Technique to Avoid Failure

Most of us spend our time planning for success. We set goals, make vision boards, and focus on the best-case scenario. But what if one of the best ways to guarantee success is to meticulously plan for failure? This is the core of Inversion Thinking, a powerful mental model popularized by investor Charlie Munger.

What is Inversion Thinking? As Charlie Munger said, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there." Inversion is the practice of defining the worst possible outcome in a situation and then working backward to identify all the things that could lead to it, so you can proactively avoid them.

Why Thinking Backward is So Effective

It's often easier to identify what *doesn't* work than what does. There are many paths to success, but the paths to failure are often predictable (e.g., poor communication, lack of focus, bad habits). By identifying and avoiding these common pitfalls, you dramatically increase your chances of success.

How to Run a "Personal Pre-Mortem" with Inversion

A pre-mortem is an exercise where you imagine a project has already failed, then work backward to figure out why. You can apply this to your life.

Step 1: Define the "Failure"

Be specific and dramatic. Imagine a future headline about your failure. For example: "My project launch fails spectacularly," or "After five years, my health has completely deteriorated."

Step 2: Brainstorm All the Reasons for Failure

What would have caused this? List everything you can think of. For the failed project, it might be: "I didn't listen to user feedback," "I tried to do too much at once," "I avoided the hard conversations with my team."

Step 3: Create a Plan to Avoid Those Reasons

This is where the magic happens. Your list of reasons for failure now becomes a clear, actionable to-do list for achieving success. For every reason for failure, create a preventative action. "I will schedule weekly calls specifically for user feedback," or "I will define one core priority for this month."

Example: "How [Your Name] Blew It All"

Imagine the newspaper article. It would probably say you failed not because of one big event, but because of a series of small, consistent neglects: you stopped calling your mentors, you prioritized urgent tasks over important ones, you let your health slide one day at a time. Inversion helps you see those small things before they become big problems.

Next Step: Write Your Critic's Article

L10: A Critic's Article is a guided experience that walks you through this exact process. It helps you write that scathing (but private) article about your own potential failure, so you can build the fire escape and ensure it never gets written.